Why Biden MAY not run

Might the President step aside and declare “mission accomplished”?

Let me begin by saying that I have been a strong supporter of President Biden’s. I voted for him in the 2020 Democratic primary after Pete Buttigieg dropped out, and I had a chance to talk to him and thank him during the campaign for his longtime support of LGBTQ+ equality.

I believe he should run in 2024, if he wants to. After all, he’s had a tremendous record of success while in office. But might that strong record be exactly the reason that he decides to step aside and let a new standard bearer lead the Democrats into the next general election?

Allow me to explain. The news lately has been nothing but positive for the 46th Commander in Chief of our nation. The new employment numbers that came out today were, as one pundit put it, “historically, unbelievably good”. The President in the last Congress signed a long list of very significant legislation on climate change, infrastructure and many other important priorities for the country.

And then of course there were the amazing results in the midterm elections that were a major upset for the Democratic Party. Despite low poll numbers and a historical trend of midterms going against the party that’s in power in the White House, Democrats EXPANDED their majority in the Senate and just barely (but for a few seats in New York due to court-mandated redistricting) lost the House of Representatives, even though conventional wisdom said it would be a wipeout.

The Democrats maintained and/or gained control of the Governorships and Secretaries of State positions in almost all of the key races. Unbelievably, despite being in a fiercely contested swing states in races many declared to be a “toss up”, Gretchen Whitmer won re-election as Governor of Michigan by 10 points, and Tony Evers won re-election as Wisconsin Governor by 4 points. Biden barely won Wisconsin in 2020 in an environment that was supposedly much more favorable than 2022.

Katie Hobbs defeated MAGA icon Kari Lake by a point to be Governor of Arizona, larger than the margin when Biden defeated Trump there in 2020, and Josh Shapiro won against January 6th insurrectionist Doug Mastriano by 17 points in Pennsylvania, a state Biden won by less than 3 points 2 years ago.

Maybe these are signs that the American people, regardless of the broader typical political headwinds, will turn out and vote against anti-democratic politicians such as Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis in the next election?

Biden’s main rationale for running has always been, both in 2020 and now, that Trump was an existential threat to the country. Maybe he will decide that Trump and the Republicans are not as much of a threat anymore and that he can forgo a run for re-election?

I want to be clear that this is not me advocating for him not to run or saying that I think progressive voters can afford to be lazy or apathetic. I think the opposite is true: as I said above, Biden has a huge track record of success to run on, and I think the only reasons we did as well as we did in the midterms was because people DID engage and turn out the vote. In fact studies have shown that the reasons Democrats over performed was mainly due to Gen Z voters who came out in big numbers to vote for the first time.

In order for us to win the presidency in 2024 we need that level of enthusiasm to continue, regardless of who the Democratic candidate turns out to be. The main reason for this article is simply to point out that Biden may be making a different calculus at the moment than many people are assuming.

His decision may end up being something similar to that of Debbie Stabenow, who just announced she will not run for re-election as U.S. Senator from Michigan, an announcement that surprised many. In it she spoke of being “inspired by a new generation of leaders”, and that “under the cloud of unprecedented threats to our democracy and our basic freedoms, a record-breaking number of people voted last year in Michigan. Young people showed up like never before. This was a very hopeful sign for our future.”

Is it possible that Biden will similarly decide that the Democrats are in such a strong position going into the next election that he can confidently allow that “new generation of leaders” to step up and lead the fight? We will find out soon. But either way, the good news is that we are definitely in a strong position to beat back the Republicans and Trumpism, even if the GOP nominee isn’t named Donald Trump, in 2024.